Interview: "Canada needs a trillion dollars — and the opportunity will persist for decades"

Editorial Staff: Paul, you have been in the real estate industry for over 35 years. How did you find your way into this sector? 

Paul Chin: I kind of fell into it, honestly. When I came in roughly north of 30 years ago, I entered through the credit side of the business. I worked for a number of different organisations — predominantly on the mortgage investment side — groups such as ING, Canal Life, major Canadian banks, international banks, CMBS lending, Canadian pension funds. And then the opportunity at Centurion arose. I knew the space very well and was actively involved, so I felt my skill set and relationships could be additive to the organisation.

Editorial Staff: Centurion focuses on Canadian residential real estate. What makes Canada such a compelling investment market right now? 

Paul Chin: Canada is experiencing a very significant supply-demand imbalance in housing. A number of structural factors created it: the regulatory environment, the time it takes to get permits, the cost to build, skilled labour shortages — all of those have constrained supply. On top of that, Canada has seen the largest and fastest population growth of any G7 nation over the last 25 years, and this is all legal immigration. The result is a structural housing shortage that is unlikely to resolve quickly.

Editorial Staff: European investors often lump Canada and the United States together as a single North American market.Is that a fair perception? 

Paul Chin: Canada hasn't done a great job of differentiating itself from the US, largely because of the sheer size of the American market. But the differences are material. Canada offers a very stable environment: rule of law, a stable banking system, a strong financial infrastructure. The US offers more volatility — the market is more heavily reliant on capital markets, and when capital markets shut down, it creates disruption. Since 2000, there have been 570 bank failures in the United States. In Canada: zero. Even through the great financial crisis. That is a stabilising feature that institutional investors should not underestimate.

Editorial Staff: What role does the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation play in creating that stability? 

Paul Chin: The CMHC is a crown corporation with a mandate to support housing. What it does for lenders is provide mortgage insurance — your principal is insured. That creates stability across the multifamily market, gives lenders confidence, and results in a very low cost of debt. For fund managers like us, it means we can structure financing efficiently even in more challenging rate environments. It is a structural advantage that simply does not exist in the same form in other markets. 

Editorial Staff: Centurion manages approximately USD 5.4 billion in AUM across 160 buildings and nearly 24,000 units. Does scale give you a genuine edge?

Paul Chin: Absolutely. We are geographically spread across Canada — and the theory behind that is that not every region will be impacted by any single market event at the same time. Our strategy is suburban and exurban: close to employment, shopping, services and amenities, in growth areas. By that very nature, we also create relative affordability. When you operate at this scale with a vertically integrated model and active asset management, you have data advantages, cost advantages, and the ability to respond to market conditions that smaller operators simply cannot match. 

Editorial Staff: If we meet again at next year's LivingConference — what will you be telling us about the Canadian market?

Paul Chin: I think the opportunity will still be there. The federal government is trying to improve the housing situation — they recognise it, and there are various programmes being initiated. But the sheer volume of capital needed to solve this issue is immense. We are probably talking about a trillion dollars of investment over the coming decades. That creates a long-duration opportunity for institutional capital. We are well positioned — because of our vertically integrated nature, our active asset management approach, and simply the size of our portfolio. We will keep capitalising on it. 

Editorial Staff: Thank you very much for this interview.

Paul Chin, B.Sc., is Chief Investment Officer at Centurion Asset Management Inc., Canada's largest private apartment fund manager (approx. USD 5.4 billion AuM, around 23,900 residential units). With over 35 years of experience in real estate debt, he previously served as CIO at Otera Capital (CDPQ), growing AuM from CAD 8 to 30 billion. He joined Centurion in November 2024.

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