Why U.S. Real Estate

10.06.2026

Autor

Thomas Baur

Senior Director

Blogbeitrag

U.S. commercial real estate underwent a significant repricing from the peak in Q1 2022 to trough in Q4 2023 as mortgage rates spiked by over 400 bps. Values fell roughly 20% but the correction was primarily a valuation reset, not a fundamental collapse. Net operating income grew throughout the downturn, and total returns have turned positive for six consecutive quarters per NCREIF. Following a pandemic-era development boom, new supply is now sharply constrained—starts in multifamily and industrial are down 40-50%—while demand remains durable, setting up favorable conditions for rent growth. Institutional investors consistently rank the U.S. as one of the safest real estate markets, and a growing share plan to increase allocations in 2026.n.

Multifamily
2025 was one of the strongest years for apartment absorption in decades, but elevated new deliveries kept vacancy high and rent growth subdued in many markets. Gateway markets are recovering faster, with San Francisco ranking as the top performer for rent growth nationally in Q4 2025. Sun Belt markets are absorbing a supply surge, many with flat or negative rent growth, but pipelines have declined materially and fundamentals are expected to normalize as excess inventory clears. San Francisco fundamentals are particularly compelling: vacancy sits at just 3.6%, second lowest nationally behind New York City, 2026 deliveries are forecast at their lowest level since 2012, and investment in AI is driving strong employment and wealth creation, with median household incomes rising 66% above the U.S. average. Per CBRE, Downtown SF achieved 11.9% rent growth in 2025 and the MSA is expected to lead major markets again in 2026, making it one of the most attractive multifamily opportunities in the country. New York City fundamentals also remain compelling within the broader multifamily recovery. Vacancy sits at just over 3%, well below its pre-pandemic average and among the lowest of major U.S. markets, reflecting sustained demand and limited available inventory. At the same time, new supply is set to decline meaningfully, with 2026 deliveries projected to be the lowest in over a decade, reinforcing an increasingly supply-constrained environment.

Industrial
Industrial demand is increasingly driven by reshoring and domestic supply chain reorientation. In 2025, inland markets—led by Dallas–Fort Worth, Indianapolis, Phoenix, and Columbus—emerged as primary absorption drivers, with the South accounting for the largest national share per Cushman & Wakefield. Manufacturing recorded the fastest leasing growth among major occupier types, supported by policy incentives for domestic production. Looking ahead, vacancy is expected to peak and tighten as speculative development pulls back sharply, creating a temporary supply gap favorable to rent stabilization. The most compelling opportunities lie at the intersection of reshoring activity, labor availability, and growing consumer demand, particularly Texas and the Southeast. JLL expects both regions to collectively represent more than one-third of U.S. industrial demand in 2026.

Office
Office fundamentals are improving at the margin but remain far from stabilized. Leasing activity in 2025 approached pre-pandemic levels, yet overall vacancy exceeded 20% at year-end per Cushman & Wakefield, reflecting persistent hybrid work shifts. Class A assets are leasing well, but landlords rely heavily on concessions that limit effective rent growth. Sublease availability remains elevated. The sector is increasingly bifurcated: well-located quality assets are stabilizing while older, poorly positioned properties face structural impairment and high renovation costs. This widening gap is creating distressed opportunities for patient, highly selective investors willing to underwrite the ongoing reset. Credit Real estate credit remains an interesting angle to capture the current market opportunity. Over $2 trillion of CRE debt is set to mature in coming years, including ~$700B in multifamily and ~$400B in office, with nearly $600B deemed “potentially troubled” per Newmark. This creates a compelling window for credit strategies: sitting higher in the capital stack with contractual cash flows, structured credit can offer asymmetric risk-adjusted returns. Rescue capital, preferred equity, and mezzanine debt allow investors to negotiate enhanced yields and stronger covenants while preserving upside. Recent redemptions in private credit funds including 20%+ of Blue Owl’s flagship vehicle underscore that real-estate-backed credit offers a more durable collateral profile than corporate-debt strategies. Selectivity remains critical, particularly in office, but the opportunity to bridge dislocation and recovery through structured solutions is significant.