Introduction:

The USA Conference 2025, one of the leading European events dedicated to indirect U.S. real estate investments, was hosted by the FondsForum Platform and PIA Pontis Institutional Advisors on 6/7 March 2025 at the Falkenstein Grand Hotel in Königstein, just north of Frankfurt. Bringing together about 130 participants with 43 distinguished speakers, the conference featured a dynamic lineup of keynote presentations, panel discussions, and expert insights. Its international reach continues to expand each year, evolving into a truly pan-European platform, attracting investors also from the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland and the UK. Participants gained valuable perspectives on current market trends, macroeconomic developments, and the evolving challenges shaping the U.S. real estate landscape. Most importantly, the GP/LP ratio of roughly 60/40 truly highlights the quality of the participants makeup.

Pre-Event Dinner and Networking:

The conference traditionally commenced with its exclusive pre-event dinner at Restaurant Lodge, beautifully situated next to the Opel-Zoo in Kronberg. Both sponsor representatives and investors had the chance to get together in a unique and memorable setting while savoring regional and seasonal specialties. This set the stage for a series of insightful discussions and engagements that followed over the course of the next two conference days.

Day 1:

The first day of the conference was officially kicked off with a warm welcome by Oliver Strumpf, Founder of the FondsForum Platform and initiator of this event. David Rückel, Managing Partner at PIA Pontis Institutional Advisors and Conference Chairman provided an opening speech on the importance of the transatlantic market and presented an overview of overall investor allocations and sentiment. They paved the way by introducing the key topics on the agenda: U.S. demographics, AI and a fresh look at office and retail, alongside the long-standing focus on “Beds and Sheds”.

I. General market overview

• The first agenda section provided a broad market overview, revisiting the concept of U.S. exceptionalism under the new Trump administration. The overall sentiment toward the U.S. economy remained optimistic, emphasizing its strength and resilience, largely driven by the technology and service industries. Still, uncertainty is heightened by erratic policies that could hamper growth and negatively affect inflation.
• Real Estate valuations seem to have bottomed out across all sectors, except for the office sector, positioning the market at the threshold of a new cycle where NOI growth will play a crucial role and we cannot rely on cap rate compression.
• Historical forward curves usually trend upward, but for the first time, they are shifting downward; while predictions are unreliable, the forward curve remains the best consensus. Overall, there is agreement that we need to accept “higher for longer”.

II. Demographics and the living sector

• Next, the discussion shifted to U.S. demographics and their impact on the living sector. A detailed breakdown of migration patterns within the US led to an analysis of the rental market, which is structurally shifting toward renting and the continued growth of the smile markets.
• Emerging segments such as Single-Family BTR, as well as specialty sectors like student housing, senior housing, and manufactured housing, were highlighted as essential to meeting the continued strong demand and evolving housing needs.
• A panel discussion on multifamily reaffirmed concerns about oversupply in certain markets. However, speakers also stressed that, given the overall strong market fundamentals, this surplus is expected to be absorbed in due course. Currently buying below replacement cost provides good purchasing opportunities, yet these are limited with few real distressed sellers. Also, development slowly becomes attractive again with supply declining.
• Additionally, affordability and attainability remained pressing issues, with the ongoing erosion of the middle class and the intensifying pressure on lower-income segments posing long-term challenges—not just in the U.S., but globally.

III. Supply chain and industrial sectors

• From there, the conversation transitioned to the U.S. supply chain within the context of global trade and its impact on the industrial sector.
• The ongoing shifts toward on-shoring and near-shoring have heightened the need for more efficient distribution networks to reach end consumers. In this regard, the small-box industrial sector was identified as particularly well-positioned, benefiting from its proximity to consumers and strong market tailwinds.
• The Mexican industrial market, given its low-cost environment for production is about to surpass trade the US has with China. It is developed to one of the most important near-shoring markets.
• Additionally, the session explored emerging specialties within the industrial sector, such as specialty storage and self-storage, both of which continue to experience significant growth.

IV. AI and data centers

• The focus then turned to AI and its transformative potential. A compelling lecture encouraged attendees not only to invest in AI but also integrate it effectively into their businesses.
• This naturally led to a discussion on data centers, a sector positioned at the intersection of real estate and infrastructure, underscoring its growing significance in an increasingly digital economy. Data Centers are a true real estate opportunity not only as development but also as longer-term net-lease investment capturing the credit of the operators.

Day 2:

V. US investor’s perspective and the commercial sector

• The second day opened with insights from a U.S. investor, who shared his approach to navigating the market and discussed his investment strategies. Most important is, regardless of size, to stay flexible to invest tactically.  This led to an in-depth discussion on commercial real estate sectors, including office, retail, and mixed-use properties.
• One of the key takeaways was the debate surrounding the office sector. Despite its challenges and somewhat tarnished reputation in recent years, experts presented compelling arguments emphasizing that it remains an institutional asset class that should not be dismissed entirely. While the sector faces structural changes, it still offers opportunities for strategic investment in selected high-end spaces. At the top of the market, available space is becoming scarce and we could expect new developments. Retail has come full circle on the structural change it needed driven by the growth of e-commerce, and supply is healthy again. Mixed-use developments are an increasingly relevant response to evolving urban environments, and office-to-residential conversions are part of this transformation.
• The section concluded with an insightful presentation on tax, highlighting recent changes and the outlook under the new administration. The key takeaways were the importance of closely monitoring developments in Washington and finding ways to navigate these uncertainties. However, there was also a sense of confidence that the president, with a strong background in real estate, will seek to attract capital into the U.S. market.

VI. Market outlook

• The final section of the agenda began with a discussion about emerging managers and asset classes, examining how they are shaping the future of private equity in real estate. A strong emphasis was placed on the people behind investment firms that are creating the value, arguing that track records alone should not dictate investment decisions. Given the lack of carry and the low valuations, real estate provides a perfect backdrop of spin-outs and new team formations.
• Low transactions volumes persist, and debt and equity markets are still largely frozen. This yields opportunities in the secondary market. Nevertheless, accepting the new “higher for longer” reality could end the waiting game for lower rates and fuel transactions. Lastly, new allocations by investors should bring equity back into the market.
• Last but not least, the conference was wrapped up with an investor panel, summarizing key takeaways from a European investor’s perspective. The panelists reinforced the importance of maintaining a long-term outlook, reminding attendees that investment decisions should be guided by fundamental principles rather than short-term election cycles.
• Although ESG was intentionally excluded from the agenda, it did emerge naturally in discussions. It remains critically important to both investors and investment managers, even if currently overshadowed by other pressing concerns.

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